Denoised least squares forecasting of GDP changes using indexes of consumer and business sentiment
نویسنده
چکیده
Several studies in the economic literature have examined the usefulness of leading indicators in forecasting GDP changes. The two main sources of information used in this direction are (a) indexes of consumer and business sentiment and (b) monetary and financial data. Consumer and business sentiment indexes are based on sample surveys conducted by both national statistical services and industry groups who survey consumer and business expectations about the economy and individual income. Monetary and financial data usually consist of variables such as the stock market index, money supply, interest rates and yield curves.
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